![]() A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher! Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!Ītlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Because of its limited scope, it is able to run quickly but does not do well with complex upper-air situations such as wind shear, or interaction with other storms and fronts.The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.Ī tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. The scoop: A two-dimensional model, it uses boundary conditions from global models and an idealized, symmetric vortex representing a storm's center of circulation. It uses different equations depending on the storm's motion and current location. The scoop: The model incorporates the CLIPER track with two other tracks based off the observed height analysis and the forecast height analysis - to produce a singular track forecast. The scoop: The model incorporates the current motion of the storm and historical storm data to produce a track forecast. Depending on the strength of the storm (weaker storms tend to be more vulnerable at the upper-levels of the atmosphere, for example), the model can be painfully inaccurate. The scoop: Operating at three different levels, the model forecasts a storm to follow the average direction (and force) of the horizontal wind, accounting for the curvature of the earth. The scoop: Run by the UK's meteorological office, the model is very similar to the NOGAPS model. Nevertheless, the model has become very accurate over the past few years. The scoop: Not designed specifically to predict hurricanes, the NOGAPS model uses synthetic upper-air data based on the NHC's estimates of storm location and intensity. ![]() ![]() Naval Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Often tends to overdevelop the tropics, sometimes showing a chain of two or three simultaneous storms that never develop, but can be a good indicator of when conditions are becoming more favorable for development overall. Offers the longest range forecast up to three weeks but after five days time, forecasts can vary wildly from run to run. The scoop: Creates worldwide forecasts by plotting the storm on a large grid that covers the globe, but has a coarser resolution than many regional models due to computer limitations. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (Camp Springs, MD) It additionally has performed well with individual storms, often as either the most accurate or second-most accurate model with individual storms. The GFDL has become the most reliable model in recent years, with its average error the least of all models. The scoop: A model developed specifically for tropical systems, this model is nested as part of the GFS global model, with a focus on the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Princeton, NJ) Computer-generated weather models and measurements gathered by "Hurricane Hunter" aircraft play a major role. Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center study a wide array of data and use experience and intuition to predict a hurricane's future path.
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